Margin of Sampling Errors: What Do They Mean?
What does it mean when a survey reports that there is a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3%? Why not four, or two? Certainly it's possible for the sample to be off by more than 3%, so stating the sampling error (without specifying the corresponding level of confidence) is simply misleading the audience into a sense of false confidence, because in reality, "there is a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3%" means "we're pretty sure we're correct to 3%, but good luck if you want to know how sure!"
Every assertion of a specific margin of sampling error in surveys must be accompanied by the corresponding confidence level so that the public can see a more informative survey and develop a more realistic understanding of the survey results. If there is a standard (95%, maybe?), publish that with each survey; otherwise, develop a standard.
Gallup, you start first.
- Jinghao's blog
- Login or register to post comments
Comments
I thought the developed
I thought the developed standard was two standard deviations (in any field of research). Publishing that with each survey might be overkill, but I could agree on the point of perhaps teaching it in high school.
Personally, I find the methods of so-called "random" sampling to be more of an issue with surveys. At the very least, they're all biased in that they only apply to those available to take surveys.